Global epidemiology of cirrhosis - aetiology, trends and predictions.

Cirrhosis is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in people with chronic liver disease worldwide. In 2019, cirrhosis was associated with 2.4% of global deaths. Owing to the rising prevalence of obesity and increased alcohol consumption on the one hand, and improvements in the management of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infections on the other, the epidemiology and burden of cirrhosis are changing. In this Review, we highlight global trends in the epidemiology of cirrhosis, discuss the contributions of various aetiologies of liver disease, examine projections for the burden of cirrhosis, and suggest future directions to tackle this condition. Although viral hepatitis remains the leading cause of cirrhosis worldwide, the prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and alcohol-associated cirrhosis are rising in several regions of the world. The global number of deaths from cirrhosis increased between 2012 and 2017, but age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) declined. However, the ASDR for NAFLD-associated cirrhosis increased over this period, whereas ASDRs for other aetiologies of cirrhosis declined. The number of deaths from cirrhosis is projected to increase in the next decade. For these reasons, greater efforts are required to facilitate primary prevention, early detection and treatment of liver disease, and to improve access to care.

Impact of COVID-19 on Liver Transplantation in Hong Kong and Singapore: A Modelling Study.

BACKGROUND: Liver transplantation (LT) activities during the COVID-19 pandemic have been curtailed in many countries. The impact of various policies restricting LT on outcomes of potential LT candidates is unclear. METHODS: We studied all patients on the nationwide LT waitlists in Hong Kong and Singapore between January 2016 and May 2020. We used continuous time Markov chains to model the effects of different scenarios and varying durations of disruption on LT candidates. FINDINGS: With complete cessation of LT, the projected 1-year overall survival (OS) decreased by 3•6%, 10•51% and 19•21% for a 1-, 3- and 6-month disruption respectively versus no limitation to LT, while 2-year OS decreased by 4•1%, 12•55%, and 23•43% respectively. When only urgent (acute-on-chronic liver failure [ACLF] or acute liver failure) LT was allowed, the projected 1-year OS decreased by a similar proportion: 3•1%, 8•41% and 15•20% respectively. When deceased donor LT (DDLT) and urgent living donor LT (LDLT) were allowed, 1-year projected OS decreased by 1•2%, 5•1% and 8•85% for a 1-, 3- and 6-month disruption respectively. OS was similar when only DDLT was allowed. Complete cessation of LT activities for 3-months resulted in an increased projected incidence of ACLF and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) dropout at 1-year by 49•1% and 107•96% respectively. When only urgent LT was allowed, HCC dropout and ACLF incidence were comparable to the rates seen in the scenario of complete LT cessation. INTERPRETATION: A short and wide-ranging disruption to LT results in better outcomes compared with a longer duration of partial restrictions. FUNDING: None to disclose.

Global epidemiology of cirrhosis — aetiology, trends and predictions

Cirrhosis is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in people with chronic liver disease worldwide. In 2019, cirrhosis was associated with 2.4% of global deaths. Owing to the rising prevalence of obesity and increased alcohol consumption on the one hand, and improvements in the management of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infections on the other, the epidemiology and burden of cirrhosis are changing. In this Review, we highlight global trends in the epidemiology of cirrhosis, discuss the contributions of various aetiologies of liver disease, examine projections for the burden of cirrhosis, and suggest future directions to tackle this condition. Although viral hepatitis remains the leading cause of cirrhosis worldwide, the prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and alcohol-associated cirrhosis are rising in several regions of the world. The global number of deaths from cirrhosis increased between 2012 and 2017, but age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) declined. However, the ASDR for NAFLD-associated cirrhosis increased over this period, whereas ASDRs for other aetiologies of cirrhosis declined. The number of deaths from cirrhosis is projected to increase in the next decade. For these reasons, greater efforts are required to facilitate primary prevention, early detection and treatment of liver disease, and to improve access to care. In this Review, Huang et al. highlight global trends in the epidemiology of cirrhosis, including contributions of various aetiologies of liver disease, and consider what needs to be done to address projected increases in the burden of cirrhosis. Key points Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remains the leading cause of global deaths related to cirrhosis, followed by alcohol-associated liver disease. The global burden of cirrhosis associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has increased substantially in the past decade. In the Americas, the dominant cause of cirrhosis is shifting from viral hepatitis to NAFLD and alcohol-associated liver disease. The COVID-19 pandemic has set back progress in the elimination of HCV and hepatitis B virus, and most countries are not on track to meet the WHO viral hepatitis elimination targets. The focus of care should be shifted upstream towards primary prevention and early detection of liver disease to reduce the global burden of cirrhosis.

Characteristics and Treatment Rate of Patients With Hepatitis C Virus Infection in the Direct-Acting Antiviral Era and During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States.

Importance: Clinical data on hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment rates in the United States are sparse. Objective: To evaluate HCV treatment rates in the era of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used data from the deidentified Optum Cliniformatics Data Mart Database (2014-2021) on patients with HCV in the DAA and COVID-19 eras. The database includes patients with private health insurance in the US. Main Outcomes and Measures: The treatment rate and changes over time were assessed with adjusted log-binomial regression, and factors associated with treatment were examined using multivariable logistic regression. Results: A total of 133 348 patients with HCV (79 567 [59.7%] men; mean [SD] age, 59.7 [12.3] years; 4448 [3.3%] Asian, 24 662 [18.5%] Black, and 74 750 [56.1%] White individuals) were included; 38 180 (26.8%) had HCV RNA data, and of those, 20 277 (53.1%) had positive HCV RNA. Overall, 13 214 patients with positive HCV RNA tests (65.2%) received DAA treatment; 6456 of 6634 patients treated with DAAs (97.3%) achieved sustained virologic response. After adjusting for age, sex, and race and ethnicity, the treatment rate in 2018 was 0.5 times greater than the rate in 2014 (adjusted prevalence ratio, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.42-1.59) but declined after 2018, decreasing from 64.8% to 61.2%, and especially after 2019, when it decreased to less than 60% (P < .001). The number of patients with viremic HCV identified in between April 2020 and March 2021 also decreased to 496 from 2761 and 3258 in the preceding 2 years. Receiving care from a gastroenterologist or infectious disease specialist with advanced care practitioner (ie, nurse practitioner, physician assistant, or clinical nurse specialist) was independently associated with greater odds of DAA treatment (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.64; 95% CI, 1.07-1.50). Patients with decompensated cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were 31% less likely to receive treatment compared with those without (aOR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.54-0.90). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, less than two-thirds of insured patients with viremic HCV received DAA treatment, with declines in both the treatment rate and the number of viremic HCV diagnoses since 2019 and especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Further efforts are needed to increase HCV diagnosis and treatment, especially for those with cirrhosis and HCC. An urgent call for nationwide actions to improve access to DAA treatment, community outreach programs, and specialists through referral pipelines is needed in the United States to stay on track to meet the World Health Organization goal of reducing the burden of viral hepatitis with the eventual goal to eliminate viral hepatitis.

Epidemiology of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical characteristics, risk factors, and outcomes.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a pandemic, but its reported characteristics and outcomes vary greatly amongst studies. We determined pooled estimates for clinical characteristics and outcomes in COVID-19 patients including subgroups by disease severity (based on World Health Organization Interim Guidance Report or Infectious Disease Society of America/American Thoracic Society criteria) and by country/region. We searched Pubmed, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane, Chinese Medical Journal, and preprint databases from 1 January 2020 to 6 April 2020. Studies of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients with relevant data were included. Two reviewers independently performed study selection and data extraction. From 6007 articles, 212 studies from 11 countries/regions involving 281 461 individuals were analyzed. Overall, mean age was 46.7 years, 51.8% were male, 22.9% had severe disease, and mortality was 5.6%. Underlying immunosuppression, diabetes, and malignancy were most strongly associated with severe COVID-19 (coefficient = 53.9, 23.4, 23.4, respectively, all P < .0007), while older age, male gender, diabetes, and hypertension were also associated with higher mortality (coefficient = 0.05 per year, 5.1, 8.2, 6.99, respectively; P = .006-.0002). Gastrointestinal (nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain) and respiratory symptoms (shortness of breath, chest pain) were associated with severe COVID-19, while pneumonia and end-organ failure were associated with mortality. COVID-19 is associated with a severe disease course in about 23% and mortality in about 6% of infected persons. Individuals with comorbidities and clinical features associated with severity should be monitored closely, and preventive efforts should especially target those with diabetes, malignancy, and immunosuppression.

Liver Care and Surveillance: The Global Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

As social distancing and strict stay-at-home orders have been instituted to slow the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), unintentional outcomes among those with chronic diseases including screening for the lethal hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may be occurring. We aimed to describe the changes in liver care before and after COVID-19 restricted access to health care. We obtained data on the number of liver clinic visits, abdominal ultrasound, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging using electronic query or clinic registry at three medical centers in the United States, Japan, and Singapore for the following periods: February 1 to March 14, 2018, 2019, and 2020; and March 15 to May 1, 2018, 2019, and 2020. We performed trend analysis using logistic regression. In total, 14,403 visits were made to the liver clinics at the three centers: 5,900 in 2018, 5,270 in 2019, and 3,233 in 2020. Overall, there were no significant changes in the distribution of males and females between February 1 and May 1 from 2018 to 2020, but there was a lower proportion of seniors ages 65 years and older (P < 0.001). There were significant decreasing trends in the total number of liver clinic visits overall (p-trend = 0.038) and in the subanalysis for chronic hepatitis B, C, and other liver diseases. HCC/cirrhosis visits also dropped from 883 to 538 (39.07% decrease) overall and 665 to 355 (46.62% decrease) for the US site. In addition, there was a significant decreasing trend in the number of abdominal ultrasounds (P-trend = 0.004) and computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging (P-trend = 0.007) performed overall. Conclusion: Liver clinic visits, hepatoma surveillance, and diagnostic abdominal imaging fell dramatically as social distancing measures were instituted. Care providers must find ways to recall patients for important care monitoring, including HCC surveillance.